🔗 Share this article

The past seemed less complicated. Match number four of the Scottish and New Zealand teams. A heaving Murrayfield, a scoreless tie, winter of 1964. Euphoria at full-time. A pitch invasion to symbolize the historic accomplishment by Scotland.

After defeating Ireland, Wales and England, New Zealand had at last been stopped in a international match.

A contemporary reporter was nearly overcome with excitement. "An unforgettable sporting spectacle," he announced excitedly with considerable hope. "A match in which Scotland saved the honour of Britain."

Leaving the stadium that evening, home supporters would have had hope for the future. Four attempts at beating New Zealand and no wins, but obvious indications that maybe one was not far off.

A few seasons after, the All Blacks defeated Scotland. Five years after that, they beat them again. Another three years passed, same story. Five more years went by and, indeed, you know the rest.

Recent History

Twenty games since then later. Twenty All Black wins. From Christchurch to Dunedin, from the Southern to Northern Hemisphere - the landscapes have changed but results remain consistent.

In his time in the job, Gregor Townsend has broken winless streaks in Paris, Cardiff and Twickenham, but this challenge is different. This is 32 games across 120 years. One of sport's greatest hoodoos.

Team News

In recent years the comprehensive defeats have reduced to eight points, five points and eight points in 2014, 2017 and 2022, but New Zealand consistently prevail.

Through their brilliance, physical dominance, their chicanery, they secure victory.

As match day approaches where the optimism that supporters maintained for Scottish success is probably beginning to fade. Optimism meets historical reality.

Missing Players

Recent updates revealed that Zander Fagerson hadn't made it. To Scottish ambitions it was a significant setback.

The prop has been absent since spring, but he's exceptional and had he been declared fit then the long gap without a game would not have been a massive concern.

During modern rugby long before the hour-mark, his endurance stands out. No tighthead played nearly as many minutes in the European championship.

Replacement Concerns

Another absence is Jones but his replacement is in excellent form with Northampton. Fagerson's replacement presents concerns. While Rae is capable, his international experience consists of limited game time.

Once Rae's shift ends, there's Elliot Millar-Mills to come on. Millar-Mills is a decent prop, there's little to suggest that he can match New Zealand's standard.

Strategic Decisions

The coach has made unexpected selections, some logical, some curious. Steyn's tactical awareness replaces Duhan van der Merwe's more one-dimensional power.

The back row has no recognisable truffle dog, with Darge among substitutes. Onyeama-Christie's omission is notable.

Historical Context

Facing the Irish, New Zealand won the opening match of what they hope will be a Grand Slam tour. They started slowly, despite numerical advantage, but their last-quarter demolition did the trick.

Combined with Irish vulnerabilities, their attack, their line-out and their scrum collapsing.

Statistical Analysis

For all that their blasts at the end, the final quarter is not where the All Blacks do most of their damage. In all of their Tests recently, they've scored 87 tries in the first half and fewer after halftime.

Strong opening performances, excellent second quarters, moderate third quarters and 34 in the fourth. They come exploding out of the traps.

Required Performance

During their last meeting, they struck twice in the initial stages. Leading 14-0, the game looked done. Scotland recovered majestically to hit them with 23 unanswered points.

The clear message is that, figuratively speaking, Scotland must put the boot on the throat from kickoff - and keep it there.

Over the last decade, successful opponents have required a points average in the high-20s. Scottish scoring only occasionally against the All Blacks.

Conclusion

Perfect execution is required for Scotland. Everything. Wasted opportunities then hopes fade. Disciplinary issues? Repeated infringements? A battered scrum? The game is lost.

With perfect execution? A blistering beginning. A raucous crowd. Electric atmosphere. Ruthlessness. Finn Russell's magic. Graham being Graham.

Fantasy rugby, perhaps. Consistent performance has been elusive from Scotland that would be good enough to beat the All Blacks. If it's in there, it's about time it came out; a century is sufficient.